How Fed Rate Changes Impact Your Credit Card Interest Rate

Credit card interest rates are typically based on the “prime rate,” which is the interest rate that banks charge their best, or “prime,” customers – those they think are least likely to default on their loans. For other customers, banks and credit card issuers add a “default margin” to the prime rate. The lower a borrower’s credit score, the higher the margin. So, someone with an average score typically has a higher interest rate on their credit card than someone with a top credit score.

The reality is there’s no one single prime rate. Instead, each bank sets its own prime rate. The Wall Street Journal publishes the prime rate every day¹, but this rate is an average of multiple major banks’ prime rates.

Whatever the interest rate on your card, it will probably fall when the Fed cuts interest rates, unless it is a 0% intro Annual Percentage Rate (APR) credit card or you are still in another type of introductory low rate period. Similarly, the APR on your credit card will likely rise when the Fed raises rates. Here’s how this works.

The Fed’s main job is to adjust interest rates to meet its long-term inflation target of 2% per year. If inflation looks as if it’s rising above target, the Fed may raise rates; if inflation is set to sink below the target, the Fed may cut them.

But the Fed doesn’t directly control interest rates, including the prime rate. Instead, it sets a “target range” for the Federal Funds Rate, which is the rate at which banks lend to each other for short-term loans they may need. It’s typically about three percentage points lower than the prime rate, and the lowest cost of funding for banks.

So, when the Fed cuts interest rates, what it actually does is lower the target range for the Federal Funds Rate. For example, if the target range is 1.00%–1.25%, and the Fed cuts rates by 0.25%, the target range falls to 0.75%–1.00%. The Fed uses the theory of supply and demand to get interest rates to fall into its desired target range: it buys and sells securities, which increases or decreases the total supply of money available in the economy. But it doesn’t aim to hit the bottom of its desired range. Instead, when headlines say “Fed cuts interest rates to 0.75%,” the Federal Funds Rate is actually somewhere between 0.75% and 1.00%.

Banks and credit card companies earn their keep by charging higher interest rates on credit cards and other lending than they pay on deposits and other forms of funding. When the Fed reduces its target range, banks’ cost of funding falls. Usually, they pass this on to customers by cutting the prime rate, which reduces interest rates on loans and credit cards. Because credit cards typically have variable interest rates, when the Fed cuts interest rates, chances are that lower interest on credit cards may be one result.

For average credit card interest rates to fall to zero, both the Federal Funds Rate and the prime rate would have to be well below zero – or what’s commonly referred to as “negative rates.” But many cards have introductory offers of 0% APR on balance transfers and/or purchases, and introductory periods can last as long as 18 months. So whether the Fed is cutting rates or not, it’s worth shopping around for credit card offers.