Prior to the pandemic, cross-border travel had been on the rise for both leisure and business travelers. Nearly 45% of the total U.S. population had a passport in 2019 versus just 32% a decade earlier. For corporate America, traveling overseas became a vital part of doing business, especially as new opportunities arose in emerging markets like China, Brazil, India, and the UAE.
COVID quickly changed the travel calculus as corporations scaled travel back. The rationale was clear: COVID was invasive, and lockdowns, quarantines, testing, and other requirements made overseas travel onerous, if not impossible.
International borders are gradually reopening, but lingering concerns and fears about employee safety among managers is keeping travel from immediately returning to pre-pandemic levels. Companies have worried how they will support travelers who may test positive for COVID while traveling, need to quarantine and find and pay for one, or multiple tests to meet country requirements. Since the start of the Ukraine war, companies and industry experts have also noted concerns about the increased travel times to reach certain destinations as airlines navigate around Russian air space. According to the Business Travel Trends & Insights surveys conducted in August 2021, only 27% of respondents were allowing both domestic and international travel to take place in 2021. Another 24% were waiting for border restrictions/quarantine requirements to be lifted, and 22% were stalling until it was considered safe enough to travel.
Some Positive Surprises
Clearly, sentiment is changing, albeit slowly. In the August survey, only 3% of travel managers expected international trips to return to 2019 levels by 2021. But that outlook changed quickly when COVID appeared to be receding in the fall. When asked the same question in the November 2021 survey, 17% of respondents said the return to normal had already happened. But a full recovery still seemed months away.
Many travel managers, weary of COVID’s lingering effects, have been pushing out their predictions for improvement. In November—besides those who were already traveling across borders—only 27% expected full recovery in 2022, with most of that taking place in the second half of the year. For more than half of respondents, the recovery isn’t expected to happen until 2023 or later, if at all.
When asked to be specific about their greatest concerns around international travel for their employees, most travel managers mentioned entry/exit requirements changing while the trip was in progress, stranding travelers, while others lamented the lack of standards for tracking health requirements. Still others mentioned varied vaccination rates, access to quality healthcare and, of course, getting sick. These results indicate that travel managers must make their own assessment about how the balance of the progression of the virus, vaccination rates and boosters, and border restrictions can be interpreted as signs that travel is ready to resume.
Business Travelers are Most Optimistic about International Trips
Business travelers have been following their company’s guidance, with two-thirds waiting for restrictions to be lifted or for travel to be considered safe before crossing borders, according to the August survey. Nearly one-third didn’t expect to travel internationally at all in 2021. Instead, business travelers have been looking ahead optimistically to 2022, with nearly seven in 10 expecting international trips to return to 2019 levels this year. This compares to less than three in 10 travel managers who expect a full recovery, indicating that business travelers are not only more optimistic than travel managers, but many without strict travel programs are making their own rules.
By the November survey, 17% of business travelers said international travel made a full comeback, and 44% said it was an approved expense. However, business travelers’ optimism may very well be thwarted for those with restrictive corporate policies. Four in 10 also said that international travel was not yet approved and was still being evaluated. Three in 10 said traveling internationally required a different approval process than other types of trips.
What’s Next
Since November, the Omicron variant has been a setback for international journeys. Better days may be coming as countries begin to ease restrictions. A 2021 report by Deloitte Insights predicted improvement in late 2022, “bringing better connectivity with many of United States’ key trading partners.” However, much of Asia (e.g., China, Japan, and India) will still be elusive to business travelers. And several international conferences and events will go hybrid or virtual, if not cancelled altogether.
Travel managers waiting for a signal to reopen international travel should consider that the time has come. As travel restrictions are eased in 2022 and cases drop in many markets, it might be time to lift the ban on international trips, since overseas travel is a requirement for global success. This doesn’t mean to go full throttle, and caution is always necessary. But while it might take longer for cross-border travel to reach 2019 levels, the fact that it already has done so for nearly one-fifth of corporations indicates a slow but steady climb in the right direction.