In the business world, there’s no shortage of seasoned investors, publishers, producers, analysts, and academics who once wrote off a piece of technology or dismissed an innovator pushing the “next big thing.” But few people can say they’re always right. When these trusted forecasts are proven wrong, the mistakes can echo for years – or even decades.
Here are five examples of business-related forecasts that confidently dismissed products or services that turned out to be world-changing. These cases reveal why it can be important for business leaders to shake up the status quo, while providing insight into how to better analyze and seize opportunities – especially those that could shape the future.
1. Tech Executive Predicts the iPhone Won’t Get Significant Market Share
“[Apple’s iPhone] is the most expensive phone in the world and it doesn’t appeal to business customers because it doesn’t have a keyboard, which makes it not a very good email machine…”
The former CEO of Microsoft uttered this famous quote in 2007, and in a separate interview, he stated, “There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance.” Since then, Apple has consistently been one of the top smartphone vendors in the world, shipping over 100 million iPhones a year since 2012. Business customers are still buying iPhones well over a decade after its launch and using them for email, videoconferencing, virtual workspaces, and many other business functions that effectively utilize Apple’s famous touch screen.
Even in the early days of Apple's touch screen, experts weren’t convinced. But the team pushed on. The iPhone’s success underscores how even industry experts can overlook industry disruptions, maintaining too much faith in the status quo without considering the impact of new possibilities.
2. Japanese Auto Industry Experts Misjudge Future
Back in the '80s, a New York Times article reported a Japanese auto executive lamenting the future of his industry. “I wouldn't join my company today or any auto company. I'm pessimistic about the future of the Japanese automobile industry,” he said. Several other industry experts expressed similar discouragement.
Fast forward 40 years and Japanese cars have consistently done well around the world, with automakers such as Toyota, Nissan, Honda, and Subaru frequently ranking as top car manufacturers by sold vehicles and market share in the U.S., for instance.
Accurate industry predictions and business forecasts take into account more than just current market trends. It requires a holistic look at what innovations a newcomer can bring to the market. For Japanese carmakers, the perfect combination of safety, dependability, and affordability helped their car sales surge in an already crowded U.S. market.
No one knows for sure what technologies will take hold, what discoveries will be made, or how pop culture will evolve – and business foresight is no exception.
3. Early Electronics Pioneer Forecasts an “Impossible” Future for TV
“… while theoretically and technically television may be feasible, yet commercially and financially I consider it an impossibility, a development of which we need waste little time in dreaming.” Back in 1926, an early radio and film pioneer wrote this in The New York Times.
Not only did television prove to be commercially and financially possible, but it also reshaped modern life, with Americans owning more than two televisions per household and watching more than four hours per day, on average, according to a 2022 S&P Global Market Intelligence survey of 2,519 adults.
Innovators must remember that what may seem impossible now can become the norm as tech advancements turn today’s state-of-the-art technology into tomorrow’s commonplace goods.
4. Engineer Predicts No Need for the Personal Computer
“I can’t see any reason that anyone would want a computer of his own,” said the co-founder of Digital Equipment Corp. (DEC), in 1974.
While the concept of the home computer has, of course, drastically changed since DEC revolutionized computing by inventing a smaller, more affordable alternative to mainframe computers, millions of people now have computers – not only in their homes, but in their pockets.
Granted, DEC's co-founder likely wasn’t doubting the importance of computers. Rather, he was picturing a future when people could easily tap into a central mainframe and thus had no need to own an early minicomputer, according to the founder of Creative Computing magazine. Still, even forward-thinking business forecasting can underestimate the ways that technology will eventually be implemented, reach the masses, and reshape the world as we know it.
5. University Professor Doubts Demand for Overnight Deliveries
“The concept is interesting and well-formed, but in order to earn better than a ‘C,’ the idea must be feasible.”
This sentence was a Yale University professor’s reaction to a student's paper proposing a reliable overnight delivery service. That student went on to not only capitalize on the demand for overnight package delivery, but also build a delivery empire valued at over $60 billion when he founded freight and delivery company FedEx.
This experience shows that true innovators can push the boundaries of what is “feasible” and go on to reshape entire industries.
The Bottom Line
If there’s one thing history has taught us, it’s that even the experts aren’t perfect forecasters. No one knows for sure what technologies will take hold, what discoveries will be made, or how pop culture will evolve – and business foresight is no exception. When something seems impossible, consider why. History is filled with determined people who overcame long odds. It’s much easier to say something is impossible or that it won’t work than it is to try it.
A version of this article was originally published on November 10, 2011.
Photo: Getty Images
